Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.014141 0.015990 0.018004 0.020365 0.023058 0.026039 0.029594
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.011408 0.013968 0.017003 0.020875 0.025702 0.031542 0.039174
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.009612 0.012401 0.015894 0.020612 0.026853 0.034873 0.046033
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.008367 0.011262 0.015055 0.020422 0.027877 0.037948 0.052719
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.007425 0.010363 0.014364 0.020259 0.028801 0.040856 0.059372
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.006874 0.009915 0.014203 0.020756 0.030630 0.045135 0.068388
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.006222 0.009238 0.013626 0.020553 0.031360 0.047819 0.075240
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.005894 0.008996 0.013646 0.021219 0.033437 0.052705 0.086034
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.005291 0.008273 0.012859 0.020536 0.033290 0.054030 0.091117
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.004848 0.007755 0.012336 0.020208 0.033660 0.056190 0.097787
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.004373 0.007142 0.011605 0.019458 0.033228 0.056926 0.101995
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.004220 0.007044 0.011703 0.020109 0.035256 0.062082 0.114730
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004042 0.006894 0.011711 0.020622 0.037122 0.067204 0.128143
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003870 0.006739 0.011697 0.021095 0.038967 0.072487 0.142545
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003599 0.006388 0.011304 0.020832 0.039395 0.075117 0.151940
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003366 0.006083 0.010968 0.020640 0.039928 0.077988 0.162145
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.003158 0.005808 0.010663 0.020475 0.040491 0.080958 0.172897
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003055 0.005720 0.010699 0.020978 0.042446 0.086960 0.190996
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.002873 0.005466 0.010396 0.020772 0.042908 0.089867 0.202478
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.002807 0.005432 0.010519 0.021446 0.045293 0.097147 0.224994
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.002595 0.005094 0.010012 0.020755 0.044647 0.097671 0.231461
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.002439 0.004856 0.009687 0.020424 0.044762 0.099912 0.242385
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.002252 0.004543 0.009185 0.019665 0.043837 0.099658 0.247011